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6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
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6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the
CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast
but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While
conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including
afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon
surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across
the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in
this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east
of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in
place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will
limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous
while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such,
limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 8 17:21:02 UTC 2025.
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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