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6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/
...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.
Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist
from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south
and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift
east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This
will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern
High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the
vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley.
...Central/West Texas...
A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau
vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the
day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half
of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward
progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer
moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability
is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated
mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized
convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will
likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in
this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2025
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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