Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more