Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more