Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 6 21:46:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Tennessee and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061921Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across Tennessee this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...While synoptic forcing is limited across the area, some vertical ascent is apparent in visible imagery across southeastern Missouri, leading to multiple instances of convective initiation. Deep-layer shear (around 50 knots per mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Long, straight hodographs will also be supportive of storm splits, as evidenced by the initial storm evolution in northwestern Tennessee. The limiting factor to a more robust severe threat is the marginal instability (currently around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Low-level clouds have been persistent across much of western/central Tennessee slowing destabilization across the area. Nevertheless, with some additional clearing/heating, storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity, especially over northern-middle Tennessee later this afternoon and evening, posing an all-hazards severe weather risk. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. ..Jirak/Hart.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36188936 36698938 36948914 36828849 36748776 36698733 36658659 36808372 36158369 35438528 35248595 35148693 35248803 35318879 35508932 36188936 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more