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6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United
States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a
series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific
and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale
flow.
As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest
United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared
to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the
surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far
west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near
20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this
area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently
high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the
limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during
the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region
(aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative
humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire
weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal
heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into
the teens, which would support critical fire highlights.
At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some
mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical
fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue
to be monitored.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United
States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a
series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific
and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale
flow.
As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest
United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared
to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the
surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far
west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near
20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this
area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently
high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the
limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during
the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region
(aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative
humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire
weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal
heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into
the teens, which would support critical fire highlights.
At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some
mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical
fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue
to be monitored.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the
contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday.
Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in
fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this
strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the
Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds
to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls
into the teens.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the
contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday.
Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in
fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this
strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the
Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds
to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls
into the teens.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the
contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday.
Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in
fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this
strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the
Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds
to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls
into the teens.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the
contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday.
Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in
fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this
strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the
Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds
to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls
into the teens.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the
contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday.
Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in
fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this
strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the
Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds
to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls
into the teens.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the
contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday.
Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively
tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in
fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this
strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the
Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds
to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls
into the teens.
..Marsh.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0079 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...parts of New England and eastern NY
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 090301Z - 090700Z
SUMMARY...Multiple bands of heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per
hour should persist into the early morning across eastern New York
into parts of New England.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery and surface observations, along with
recent reports, indicate multiple swaths of heavy snow are ongoing
across parts of the Northeast. The most probable area for the
highest rates should exist over southern New England, just to the
east-northeast of the occluding transition zone between snow and
sleet. OKX dual-pol radar has sampled enhanced KDP below the
dendritic growth zone, indicative of heavy snow. 21Z SREF and 00Z
HREF guidance support potential for 2 in/hr bursts across parts of
CT/MA/RI, until enough warming near 700 mb occurs for sleet and/or
mid-level drying advects into the dendritic growth layer during the
early morning.
Farther north, a more west/east-oriented deformation zone from Lake
Ontario to the Capital District should pivot east during the next
several hours. Snowfall rates in this band should more steadily hold
around 1 in/hr as it spreads across southern parts of VT/NH/ME.
..Grams.. 02/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 43756998 42667047 41946973 41196992 40967253 41477340
41877393 42907461 43477457 43717386 43907156 43756998
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.
...Mid-South Region...
Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today
as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle
Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant
continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country,
forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf
States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery
suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across
southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb
by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM
soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500
J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent
should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist
uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a
corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in
the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then
weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep
updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally
expected to remain around 10 percent.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.
...Mid-South Region...
Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today
as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle
Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant
continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country,
forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf
States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery
suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across
southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb
by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM
soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500
J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent
should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist
uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a
corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in
the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then
weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep
updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally
expected to remain around 10 percent.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.
...Mid-South Region...
Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today
as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle
Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant
continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country,
forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf
States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery
suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across
southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb
by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM
soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500
J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent
should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist
uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a
corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in
the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then
weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep
updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally
expected to remain around 10 percent.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.
...Mid-South Region...
Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today
as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle
Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant
continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country,
forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf
States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery
suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across
southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb
by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM
soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500
J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent
should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist
uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a
corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in
the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then
weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep
updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally
expected to remain around 10 percent.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.
...Mid-South Region...
Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today
as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle
Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant
continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country,
forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf
States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery
suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across
southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb
by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM
soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500
J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent
should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist
uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a
corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in
the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then
weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep
updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally
expected to remain around 10 percent.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0078 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...far northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and far
southern portions of New England
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 082324Z - 090330Z
SUMMARY...Snow should overspread the region in the next few hours.
With time, the snow should transition to sleet and even freezing
rain before ending later this evening/overnight.
DISCUSSION...An area of mixed winter precipitation continues across
western and central Pennsylvania this evening. This precipitation
area developed/is being maintained on the nose of strong low-level
warm-air advection across a deep layer. Over the next few hours this
warm-air advection and associated isentropic ascent will overspread
eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. Surface temperatures in
the upper-20Fs and low-30Fs, coupled with dewpoint temperatures in
the upper-teens and low-20Fs, yield wet-bulb temperatures below 32F.
Thermal profiles across the region will initially support all snow.
However, as the warm-air advection warms the low-levels, the maximum
temperature in the column should increase above 32F yielding sleet
and potentially eventually freezing rain before precipitation ends
from southwest to northeast.
..Marsh.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39177553 39527647 40417671 41247631 41547565 41477463
41017363 39987304 39137378 38907485 39177553
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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