Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday morning. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment, low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama during the afternoon. The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain. Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves, convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday morning. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment, low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama during the afternoon. The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain. Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves, convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday morning. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment, low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama during the afternoon. The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain. Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves, convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 10 22:13:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 10 22:13:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more