Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 12 06:40:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through the base of a larger scale trough over western North America. This mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z and east TX by mid morning tomorrow. A corresponding intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley towards 12/12z. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage. A few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an isolated risk for hail/wind. Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located over the central Gulf Coast this evening. The gradual diminishing of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf Coast into central AL. Have removed low-severe probabilities to account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening in the short term. ..Smith.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through the base of a larger scale trough over western North America. This mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z and east TX by mid morning tomorrow. A corresponding intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley towards 12/12z. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage. A few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an isolated risk for hail/wind. Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located over the central Gulf Coast this evening. The gradual diminishing of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf Coast into central AL. Have removed low-severe probabilities to account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening in the short term. ..Smith.. 02/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 11 23:46:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 11 23:46:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0082 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111949Z - 112345Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be possible through early evening. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to 0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later this afternoon. ..Moore.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39697503 39597727 39497808 39297861 39027876 38647871 38157822 37727772 37477737 37357681 37327624 37597546 37947527 38287504 38927472 39397424 39607435 39667473 39697503 Read more

MD 0081 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina...eastern West Virginia...and western to central Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 111726Z - 112230Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to become more widespread in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains across far northwest North Carolina, far eastern West Virginia, and western to central Virginia through the afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour appear likely. DISCUSSION...A broad swath of stratiform precipitation (largely driven by strong warm advection between 925-700 mb) continues to spread east/northeast across the TN Valley and into the southern/central Appalachians. Sub-freezing temperatures throughout the column this morning across WV/VA have resulted in several inches of snowfall per recent reports. However, mPING reports of sleet across northern NC/southern VA suggest that the 925-850 mb freezing lines are beginning to migrate northward. This trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as a subtle mid-level impulse (currently over the Mid-South) continues to propagate northeast along the mid-level baroclinic zone and augments southerly flow/warm air advection. This will result in gradually warming mid-level temperatures as the primary precipitation shield shifts east. At the surface, cold air damming along the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains, combined with very limited diurnal heating and low-level wet-bulb cooling, has maintained sub-freezing temperatures from far northwest NC into VA. Although surface temperatures in 12 UTC guidance appear to be running too warm compared to 17 UTC observations, recent RAP/HRRR solutions have captured temperature trends well and suggest a transition from snow to sleet, and eventually freezing rain, will begin by around 18 UTC in the immediate lee of the higher terrain. Sleet/freezing rain should spread east through the afternoon with freezing rain rates between 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour likely for most locations (though locally higher rates are possible). ..Moore.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36018168 36048189 36138204 36288208 37188155 37598122 38158082 38368054 38548010 38587977 38537922 38397875 38027804 37717768 37467757 37277762 37147771 37067797 37017821 37037856 37027879 37007932 36927975 36608042 36018168 Read more