Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated surface low will amplify/deepen across the northeast Thursday morning with a trailing cold front extending southward along the Appalachians and into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This front will move off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening with high pressure building in across much of the eastern CONUS in its wake. Meanwhile, a strong surface low will approach the northern California/southwest Oregon Coast during the day Thursday. ...Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from central Georgia and perhaps into South Carolina and southern North Carolina to the Florida Peninsula. By 12Z the greatest severe weather threat will likely be focused across southern Georgia where mid-60s dewpoints are forecast. A strong (50 knot) low-level jet is forecast to be in place at 12Z, but will weaken through the morning as the primary surface low quickly moves farther away to the northeast. During this period in the morning with a strong low-level jet and ample instability, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain. This front is expected to move offshore by mid afternoon and thunderstorm intensity will likely have likely waned by this time due to the weakening forcing. ...Northern California... A strong surface low of the northern California coast will result in favorable shear across much of central and northern California tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of this region with weak instability present. If any pockets of greater (250-500 J/kg) MLCAPE can develop during the day Thursday when shear remains strong, a damaging wind gust or tornado is possible. However, at this time forecast soundings show the greater instability arriving beneath the upper-level low when shear will also be reduced. Therefore, given the lack of overlap between greater instability and shear, no Marginal Risk was added at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more