Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

MD 0095 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NORTHERN NEW YORK...
Mesoscale Discussion 0095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...Central and Northern New England...Northern New York... Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 131315Z - 131915Z SUMMARY...A mix of snow...sleet and freezing rain will move across northern New York and central New England this morning. Freezing rain rates could exceed 0.03 inches per hour in some areas. Heavy snow could develop in some areas across central and northern Maine. DISCUSSION...Heights will fall across the Northeast today, as a mid-level trough approaches from the west. Several areas of precipitation are ongoing in the Northeast. This is being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, and by strong low-level jet currently located in northern New York. At the surface, a strong thermal gradient is present with temperatures in New England ranging from the lower to mid 30s F over southern and central New England, and teens to single digits over central and northern Maine. In association with the low-level jet, a nose of warm air aloft is evident on forecast and observed soundings. This warm nose, with temperatures of 2 to 5 C, will favor a mixed precipitation type from northern New York eastward across northern New England into southern Maine. Freezing rain within this zone could exceed 0.03 inches per hour within the heavier pockets of precipitation. To the north of the zone, air aloft will be cold enough for snow. Localized heavy snow will be possible, mainly across parts of central and northern Maine. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 44216782 43886861 43527018 43457088 43417268 43497421 43767494 44147511 44597496 44977427 45107266 45357144 45887047 46986980 47376910 47356841 47006779 46346747 45656709 45276698 44926701 44676721 44216782 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more