Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more