Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more