Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...The Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys in central California Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132046Z - 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon hours within the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys in central California. Stronger/deeper storms will be capable of isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado given sufficient low-level wind shear. DISCUSSION...Isolated deep convection has been gradually developing within the southern Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valley over the past hour or so. These storms have developed within a small pocket where cloud breaks have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s, which are required to support deep, surface-based convection. Overall, poor mid-level lapse rates are limiting (and will continue to limit) buoyancy with maximum MUCAPE values of around 250-500 J/kg noted in recent mesoanalysis estimates. However, strong deep-layer wind shear (effective bulk shear of around 40-45 knots) is in place across the region as a mid-level jet associated with an approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Additionally, backed low-level flow within the valley is supporting 0-1 km SRH values on the order of about 100 m2/s2. As a result, organization of deeper, longer lived cells appears possible with an attendant threat of severe winds and perhaps a brief tornado (small hail is also possible, but the limited buoyancy and duration of individual cells casts uncertainty on the severe hail potential). This threat will likely be confined to the valleys and is expected to be too sporadic/isolated to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... LAT...LON 36402012 36322034 36302060 36462090 36762115 37322139 37972161 38772186 39132192 39352182 39442168 39542152 39542122 39392111 38672074 38092038 37612006 37321985 37021975 36751975 36511997 36402012 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more