Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold post-frontal air mass encompasses much of the central CONUS, while deep moisture and related precipitation overspread the West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PNS TO 10 SSE LGC. ..BROYLES..02/13/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-039-041-053-109-113-130940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA PIKE RUSSELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0094 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Southwest Georgia...Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7... Valid 130659Z - 130900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will likely persist across parts of southeast Alabama over the next few hours. Although the threat will move into parts of southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, the overall threat is expected to decrease with time. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely downstream from the current watch. DISCUSSION...A subtle mid-level trough is currently analyzed across eastern Alabama. At the surface, a front is advancing across the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, a broken line of organized storms is located from far southern Alabama extending northeastward into north-central Georgia. Surface dewpoints along and ahead of the Alabama portion of the line are in the upper 60s to near 70 F, which is contributing to MLCAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range, estimated by the RAP. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP from Fort Rucker, Alabama has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity has 450 m2/s2. This environment should continue to support a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat over the next few hours. However, as the mid-level trough an the associated low-level jet moves away from the region, the threat is expected to gradually decrease in coverage. The line will eventually affect southwest Georgia and the central Florida Panhandle late tonight, but the threat is expected to become too isolated for weather watch issuance. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30678496 30438533 30368580 30428625 30768655 31288660 31928614 32178587 32698532 33038482 33128438 33048389 32888362 32598350 32018361 31348413 30678496 Read more

WW 7 TORNADO AL MS 130245Z - 130900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 7 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 845 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will affect the watch area through the overnight area, in a region of very strong low-level winds. A few of the storms may occasionally pose a risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 125 miles west of Evergreen AL to 35 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear. ...Southeast... Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable. One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more muted/shallow convection. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially. Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more