Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more