Severe Storms

WW 9 TORNADO KY TN 160040Z - 160700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 9 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Central Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 640 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Fast-moving thunderstorms over west Tennessee will track into the watch area this evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southwest of Clarksville TN to 70 miles east of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MKL TO 15 WNW BNA TO 15 S BWG TO 30 NE BWG TO 25 S SDF. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-045-053-057-087-169-171-207-217-227-160540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND GREEN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL TAYLOR WARREN TNC003-027-037-055-081-087-099-101-111-117-119-149-159-165-169- 181-187-189-160540- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CLAY DAVIDSON GILES HICKMAN JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS MACON MARSHALL MAURY RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE WAYNE WILLIAMSON WILSON Read more

MD 0102 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 9... FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0913 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 9... Valid 160313Z - 160415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW009. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to track east northeast across portions of Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Storms embedded within the line have shown transient rotation, with instances of hail up to golf ball and damaging wind. With eastward advancements, storms have begun outpacing the more unstable air mass. Dew points into the 60s remain as far north as far southern Kentucky. However, 00z sounding from BNA shows low level CIN and poor distribution of MLCAPE within the profile. Across east Tennessee, dew points in the mid to upper 50s are more common with temperatures cooling rapidly with eastward extent. Shear profiles remain very strong, with deep layer shear around 45-50 kts and 0-3 km SRH around 600 m2/s2. Despite the decreasingly favorable thermal environment, deep layer shear will likely favor continued organization and risk for damaging wind, given recent trends in a more elongated line with bowing segments. Embedded MESOVORTEX within the line may still pose a risk for tornadoes. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35188801 35578824 35918799 36288755 36738711 37048675 37148658 37308622 37288560 37008541 36438542 35968606 35528658 35208733 35188801 Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MKL TO 40 SSW CKV TO 10 SE CKV TO 25 ENE CKV TO 25 NNW BWG TO 45 SSW SDF TO 40 SSW SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-045-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-207-213-217- 227-160440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR WARREN TNC003-021-027-037-043-055-081-085-087-099-101-111-117-119-125- 135-147-149-159-165-169-181-187-189-160440- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CHEATHAM CLAY DAVIDSON DICKSON GILES Read more

MD 0101 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL GULF STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 0101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Central Gulf States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160237Z - 160330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will be issued across the central Gulf States by 0330z. DISCUSSION...Fast-moving upper trough is ejecting across eastern OK/TX and the associated cold front is surging through the lower MS Valley region, currently stretching from eastern AR into south-central TX. An expansive corridor of pre-frontal convection has developed ahead of the short wave from the lower OH Valley, southwest into central LA. Over the last hour or so, thunderstorm activity appears to be gradually sharpening across the lower MS Valley with at least two bands of strong/severe convection that will soon spread east of the MS River. Surface temperatures remain in the lower 70s across much of the warm sector immediately ahead of this activity, and mid 60s dew points have returned to central MS. While tornado activity has been somewhat sparse to this point, intense 0-3km SRH warrants concern. Latest thinking is updrafts may continue to mature and longer-lived supercells are certainly possible, though an organized QLCS will be the primary storm mode. This MCS will advance across the remainder of the central Gulf States later tonight. ..Darrow/Hart.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LIX... LAT...LON 30999162 35018822 34998491 30998843 30999162 Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH TO 20 SW CKV. ..SPC..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-029-065-107-160440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CONCORDIA MADISON TENSAS MSC003-009-013-015-043-051-053-055-071-083-097-115-117-125-139- 145-149-161-163-160440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CARROLL GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MONTGOMERY PONTOTOC PRENTISS SHARKEY TIPPAH UNION WARREN YALOBUSHA YAZOO TNC023-039-071-077-109-160440- Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH TO 20 SW CKV. ..SPC..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-029-065-107-160440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CONCORDIA MADISON TENSAS MSC003-009-013-015-043-051-053-055-071-083-097-115-117-125-139- 145-149-161-163-160440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CARROLL GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MONTGOMERY PONTOTOC PRENTISS SHARKEY TIPPAH UNION WARREN YALOBUSHA YAZOO TNC023-039-071-077-109-160440- Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH TO 20 SW CKV. ..SPC..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-029-065-107-160440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CONCORDIA MADISON TENSAS MSC003-009-013-015-043-051-053-055-071-083-097-115-117-125-139- 145-149-161-163-160440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CARROLL GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MONTGOMERY PONTOTOC PRENTISS SHARKEY TIPPAH UNION WARREN YALOBUSHA YAZOO TNC023-039-071-077-109-160440- Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH TO 20 SW CKV. ..SPC..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-029-065-107-160440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CONCORDIA MADISON TENSAS MSC003-009-013-015-043-051-053-055-071-083-097-115-117-125-139- 145-149-161-163-160440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CARROLL GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MONTGOMERY PONTOTOC PRENTISS SHARKEY TIPPAH UNION WARREN YALOBUSHA YAZOO TNC023-039-071-077-109-160440- Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH TO 20 SW CKV. ..SPC..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-029-065-107-160440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CONCORDIA MADISON TENSAS MSC003-009-013-015-043-051-053-055-071-083-097-115-117-125-139- 145-149-161-163-160440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CARROLL GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MONTGOMERY PONTOTOC PRENTISS SHARKEY TIPPAH UNION WARREN YALOBUSHA YAZOO TNC023-039-071-077-109-160440- Read more

WW 8 TORNADO AR LA MS TN TX 152200Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 8 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and Southeast Arkansas Northern and Central Louisiana Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee East Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An intensifying squall line will move generally in a west to east direction through the late evening. The greatest severe risk will be with bowing segments or embedded supercells or mesovortices within the squall line, where damaging gusts are likely and a threat for a tornadoes may exist. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Dyersburg TN to 45 miles south of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 21055. ...Smith Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0010 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0010 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW HOP TO 10 WSW HOP TO 25 N HOP TO 45 N BWG. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-031-045-047-053-057-061-085-087-099-141-169-171- 207-213-217-219-227-160340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD WARREN TNC021-027-037-043-055-081-083-085-087-099-101-111-117-119-125- 135-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-160340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM CLAY DAVIDSON DICKSON GILES HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS MACON Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W POE TO 40 SW MLU TO 15 SSW LLQ TO 30 ESE PBF TO 60 SW MEM TO 50 ENE DYR. ..SPC..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-041-043-160240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC009-021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-065-067-069-073-079-083- 107-115-123-127-160240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN MSC003-009-011-013-015-027-033-043-051-053-055-071-083-093-097- Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W POE TO 40 SW MLU TO 15 SSW LLQ TO 30 ESE PBF TO 60 SW MEM TO 50 ENE DYR. ..SPC..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-041-043-160240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC009-021-025-029-035-041-043-049-059-065-067-069-073-079-083- 107-115-123-127-160240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN MSC003-009-011-013-015-027-033-043-051-053-055-071-083-093-097- Read more

MD 0100 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 8... FOR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...western Tennessee and southwestern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 8... Valid 160009Z - 160145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues within WW008. Threat will continue downstream into portions of Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has shown an uptick in intensity over the last hour across the Arkansas/Tennessee border. Line embedded supercells are observed, with activity ahead of the main line also exhibiting rotation. The low level jet, with axis currently from central LA to middle TN/southern KY, is progged to continue strengthening through the evening, with low level shear becoming more favorable. This strong southerly flow has also ushered in deeper moisture and a more favorable air mass across western Tennessee, steadily approaching southern Kentucky. Given the progress of the main line, maintenance of individual cells ahead of the line will be difficult. However, deep layer shear of 50-55 kts will continue to support line embedded mesocyclones and potential for damaging wind and tornadoes. This threat is spreading eastward and will likely necessitate a downstream watch into southern Kentucky soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35189070 36118999 36868928 37178815 37208772 37198710 37198685 37058629 36928623 36678629 36198647 35498716 35198750 35018794 35038807 35018830 35028869 34968928 34979029 35189070 Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-031-035-045-047-053-057-061-085-087-099-141-169- 171-177-183-207-213-217-219-221-227-160240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CALLOWAY CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN TNC021-027-037-043-055-081-083-085-087-099-101-111-117-119-125- 135-147-149-159-161-165-169-181-187-189-160240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM CLAY DAVIDSON DICKSON GILES HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS MACON Read more

MD 0099 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 8... FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 8... Valid 152349Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues. SUMMARY...Pre-frontal supercells may mature over the next few hours as they track across northeast LA into west-central MS. Tornado risk will increase if this occurs. Will continue to monitor for possible Tornado Watch immediately downstream into Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour or so, pre-frontal convection has gradually increased across central into northeast LA, especially from Rapides to Caldwell Parish. This activity is not too organized at this time but there is some concern these storms may continue to mature within a strongly sheared environment, immediately ahead of the frontal convection. If so, tornado risk may increase accordingly. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32219222 33319116 32579049 31089223 32219222 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more