Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over the southern High Plains. This low will track east into central TX toward the end of the period, and southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will allow modest boundary-layer moisture to return across the TX Coastal Plain. Warm temperatures aloft will keep the boundary-layer capped despite low-level warm advection, and little destabilization is forecast, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over the southern High Plains. This low will track east into central TX toward the end of the period, and southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will allow modest boundary-layer moisture to return across the TX Coastal Plain. Warm temperatures aloft will keep the boundary-layer capped despite low-level warm advection, and little destabilization is forecast, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over the southern High Plains. This low will track east into central TX toward the end of the period, and southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will allow modest boundary-layer moisture to return across the TX Coastal Plain. Warm temperatures aloft will keep the boundary-layer capped despite low-level warm advection, and little destabilization is forecast, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over the southern High Plains. This low will track east into central TX toward the end of the period, and southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will allow modest boundary-layer moisture to return across the TX Coastal Plain. Warm temperatures aloft will keep the boundary-layer capped despite low-level warm advection, and little destabilization is forecast, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over the southern High Plains. This low will track east into central TX toward the end of the period, and southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will allow modest boundary-layer moisture to return across the TX Coastal Plain. Warm temperatures aloft will keep the boundary-layer capped despite low-level warm advection, and little destabilization is forecast, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over the southern High Plains. This low will track east into central TX toward the end of the period, and southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will allow modest boundary-layer moisture to return across the TX Coastal Plain. Warm temperatures aloft will keep the boundary-layer capped despite low-level warm advection, and little destabilization is forecast, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal upper flow is expected east of the Rockies on Monday. Strong surface high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies to the Southeast with a cold and stable boundary-layer precluding thunderstorm activity for much of the CONUS. An upper trough will begin to deepen over the western U.S., and a resulting surface low will deepen over the southern High Plains. This low will track east into central TX toward the end of the period, and southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will allow modest boundary-layer moisture to return across the TX Coastal Plain. Warm temperatures aloft will keep the boundary-layer capped despite low-level warm advection, and little destabilization is forecast, precluding thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...FL/GA... An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by 12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest portion of the line will persist before moving off the South Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should diminish after late morning. ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic... The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time. In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a thunderstorm wind threat may begin. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025 Read more