Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z. Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity, severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by 21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z. Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity, severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by 21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z. Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity, severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by 21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z. Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity, severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by 21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours. Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the OH during the overnight hours. LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in nature, and likely sub-severe. Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage as the boundary surges southeast. During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours. Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the OH during the overnight hours. LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in nature, and likely sub-severe. Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage as the boundary surges southeast. During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours. Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the OH during the overnight hours. LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in nature, and likely sub-severe. Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage as the boundary surges southeast. During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours. Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the OH during the overnight hours. LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in nature, and likely sub-severe. Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage as the boundary surges southeast. During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours. Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the OH during the overnight hours. LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in nature, and likely sub-severe. Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage as the boundary surges southeast. During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours. Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the OH during the overnight hours. LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in nature, and likely sub-severe. Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage as the boundary surges southeast. During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Great Basin into the central High Plains. More widespread weak thunderstorm activity is likely across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley this evening and overnight. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level jet is digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley toward northern Mexico. Cooling/steepening profiles, north of this jet, have resulted in a fairly large area of at least weak buoyancy from the Four Corners region into southern WY. As a result, isolated-widely scattered thunderstorms are currently noted, largely aided by diurnal heating. Additionally, weak convection over the central High Plains has recently attained heights necessary for lightning discharge, immediately ahead of the surging cold front. Have adjusted thunder probabilities to account for lightning with this activity for the next several hours. Downstream, low-level warm/moist advection is contributing to increasing elevated instability across east TX into the lower MS Valley. Parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will gradually become more unstable overnight, likely exhibiting more than 500 J/kg MUCAPE, and more than adequate for lightning. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Great Basin into the central High Plains. More widespread weak thunderstorm activity is likely across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley this evening and overnight. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level jet is digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley toward northern Mexico. Cooling/steepening profiles, north of this jet, have resulted in a fairly large area of at least weak buoyancy from the Four Corners region into southern WY. As a result, isolated-widely scattered thunderstorms are currently noted, largely aided by diurnal heating. Additionally, weak convection over the central High Plains has recently attained heights necessary for lightning discharge, immediately ahead of the surging cold front. Have adjusted thunder probabilities to account for lightning with this activity for the next several hours. Downstream, low-level warm/moist advection is contributing to increasing elevated instability across east TX into the lower MS Valley. Parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will gradually become more unstable overnight, likely exhibiting more than 500 J/kg MUCAPE, and more than adequate for lightning. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 14 23:12:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 14 23:12:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level bifurcated trough will move into and over the West late Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday as deep upper-level troughing exits the eastern US. The two smaller troughs are likely to merge over the central US mid-week, with a strong upper-level jet oriented northwest to southeast over the Rockies. A strong cold front will push south down the Plains and into the Southeast and Southwest Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Southwest through the southern High Plains will receive little to no precipitation in the next week. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest onto Southern High Plains... Lee troughing will develop across the southern High Plains Day 4/Monday with strong westerly flow aloft. Gusty westerly winds amid critically low RH is expected to develop from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into far southwest Texas Day 4/Monday. A cold front pushing south down the Plains into the Southwest will limit the spatial extent of critical fire weather conditions on Day 5/Tuesday. However, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are possible from southeast Arizona into the Trans-Pecos. Additionally, gusty northerly winds amid low RH is likely in the Lower Colorado River Valley. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level bifurcated trough will move into and over the West late Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday as deep upper-level troughing exits the eastern US. The two smaller troughs are likely to merge over the central US mid-week, with a strong upper-level jet oriented northwest to southeast over the Rockies. A strong cold front will push south down the Plains and into the Southeast and Southwest Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Southwest through the southern High Plains will receive little to no precipitation in the next week. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest onto Southern High Plains... Lee troughing will develop across the southern High Plains Day 4/Monday with strong westerly flow aloft. Gusty westerly winds amid critically low RH is expected to develop from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into far southwest Texas Day 4/Monday. A cold front pushing south down the Plains into the Southwest will limit the spatial extent of critical fire weather conditions on Day 5/Tuesday. However, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are possible from southeast Arizona into the Trans-Pecos. Additionally, gusty northerly winds amid low RH is likely in the Lower Colorado River Valley. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level bifurcated trough will move into and over the West late Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday as deep upper-level troughing exits the eastern US. The two smaller troughs are likely to merge over the central US mid-week, with a strong upper-level jet oriented northwest to southeast over the Rockies. A strong cold front will push south down the Plains and into the Southeast and Southwest Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Southwest through the southern High Plains will receive little to no precipitation in the next week. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest onto Southern High Plains... Lee troughing will develop across the southern High Plains Day 4/Monday with strong westerly flow aloft. Gusty westerly winds amid critically low RH is expected to develop from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into far southwest Texas Day 4/Monday. A cold front pushing south down the Plains into the Southwest will limit the spatial extent of critical fire weather conditions on Day 5/Tuesday. However, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are possible from southeast Arizona into the Trans-Pecos. Additionally, gusty northerly winds amid low RH is likely in the Lower Colorado River Valley. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level bifurcated trough will move into and over the West late Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday as deep upper-level troughing exits the eastern US. The two smaller troughs are likely to merge over the central US mid-week, with a strong upper-level jet oriented northwest to southeast over the Rockies. A strong cold front will push south down the Plains and into the Southeast and Southwest Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Southwest through the southern High Plains will receive little to no precipitation in the next week. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest onto Southern High Plains... Lee troughing will develop across the southern High Plains Day 4/Monday with strong westerly flow aloft. Gusty westerly winds amid critically low RH is expected to develop from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into far southwest Texas Day 4/Monday. A cold front pushing south down the Plains into the Southwest will limit the spatial extent of critical fire weather conditions on Day 5/Tuesday. However, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are possible from southeast Arizona into the Trans-Pecos. Additionally, gusty northerly winds amid low RH is likely in the Lower Colorado River Valley. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level bifurcated trough will move into and over the West late Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday as deep upper-level troughing exits the eastern US. The two smaller troughs are likely to merge over the central US mid-week, with a strong upper-level jet oriented northwest to southeast over the Rockies. A strong cold front will push south down the Plains and into the Southeast and Southwest Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Southwest through the southern High Plains will receive little to no precipitation in the next week. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest onto Southern High Plains... Lee troughing will develop across the southern High Plains Day 4/Monday with strong westerly flow aloft. Gusty westerly winds amid critically low RH is expected to develop from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into far southwest Texas Day 4/Monday. A cold front pushing south down the Plains into the Southwest will limit the spatial extent of critical fire weather conditions on Day 5/Tuesday. However, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are possible from southeast Arizona into the Trans-Pecos. Additionally, gusty northerly winds amid low RH is likely in the Lower Colorado River Valley. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more