Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

MD 0080 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN VIRGINIA/SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kentucky/Western Virginia/Southern West Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 110906Z - 111500Z SUMMARY...A band of snow will continue to develop across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians over the next couple of hours. Snowfall rates of greater than one inch per hour will be possible within the heavier parts of the band, with a mix of freezing rain and snow to the south of this band. DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows west-southwesterly mid-level flow currently present across the eastern U.S., with a split mid-level jet pattern evident. Lift is likely being enhanced within the right entrance region of a mid-level jet that is analyzed in northern Kentucky. Widespread precipitation, in the form of a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow, is ongoing to the south of this feature from southeast Missouri eastward across Kentucky into western Virginia. Isentropic lift, in conjunction with strengthening low-level flow, is forecast to steadily increase along this east-to-west corridor early this morning. Surface temperatures are in the mid 30s F across much of central Kentucky, with lower 30s F in the central Appalachians. Temperatures will continue to gradually cool as the coverage of moderate to heavy precipitation increases early this morning. Within the more intense parts of the band, pockets of heavy snowfall are expected, with some locations exceeding one inch per hour. To the south of this band of snow, precipitation is expected to be a freezing rain and snow mix. After daybreak, warmer air is forecast to spread northward into parts of central and eastern Kentucky, which result in a changeover to rain in many areas. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 37228568 37328600 37428621 37508627 37668629 37858619 38018601 38168573 38318519 38508428 38578299 38588149 38488059 38318008 37977965 37467963 37197977 37047998 36898037 36788127 36858262 37048453 37228568 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more