Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more