Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to displace the modified continental air mass inland. Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an attendant tornado/severe gust threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to displace the modified continental air mass inland. Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an attendant tornado/severe gust threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to displace the modified continental air mass inland. Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an attendant tornado/severe gust threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to displace the modified continental air mass inland. Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an attendant tornado/severe gust threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms should remain negligible tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. A lone thunderstorm occurred in the past hour over western CO amid scant buoyancy and very steep lapse rates per the 00Z GJT sounding. While an additional storm or two might occur in the next hour or so, amid moderate large-scale ascent, predominately sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles with eastern extent across the CO Rockies and adjacent High Plains should largely mitigate thunderstorm potential. ..Grams.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms should remain negligible tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the period. A lone thunderstorm occurred in the past hour over western CO amid scant buoyancy and very steep lapse rates per the 00Z GJT sounding. While an additional storm or two might occur in the next hour or so, amid moderate large-scale ascent, predominately sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles with eastern extent across the CO Rockies and adjacent High Plains should largely mitigate thunderstorm potential. ..Grams.. 02/18/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 17 22:31:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 17 22:31:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z The extended forecast period will begin with a very strong Arctic high pressure in the central Plains. The associated cold front will push into the High Plains with warm and dry conditions confined to portions of the Southwest. Dry fuels remain confined to southern New Mexico and vicinity where no additional precipitation is expected this week. Therefore, by the end of the week and into the weekend when dry westerly conditions resume ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, some elevated fire weather conditions may resume. Some critical fire weather conditions may be possible, but there still remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength of winds and the timing of the trough for any probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z The extended forecast period will begin with a very strong Arctic high pressure in the central Plains. The associated cold front will push into the High Plains with warm and dry conditions confined to portions of the Southwest. Dry fuels remain confined to southern New Mexico and vicinity where no additional precipitation is expected this week. Therefore, by the end of the week and into the weekend when dry westerly conditions resume ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, some elevated fire weather conditions may resume. Some critical fire weather conditions may be possible, but there still remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength of winds and the timing of the trough for any probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z The extended forecast period will begin with a very strong Arctic high pressure in the central Plains. The associated cold front will push into the High Plains with warm and dry conditions confined to portions of the Southwest. Dry fuels remain confined to southern New Mexico and vicinity where no additional precipitation is expected this week. Therefore, by the end of the week and into the weekend when dry westerly conditions resume ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, some elevated fire weather conditions may resume. Some critical fire weather conditions may be possible, but there still remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength of winds and the timing of the trough for any probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent observations and latest guidance continue to suggest very limited thunderstorm potential. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent observations and latest guidance continue to suggest very limited thunderstorm potential. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent observations and latest guidance continue to suggest very limited thunderstorm potential. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent observations and latest guidance continue to suggest very limited thunderstorm potential. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent observations and latest guidance continue to suggest very limited thunderstorm potential. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As a mid-level short-wave trough crossing the southern Plains at the start of the period moves quickly eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country Wednesday, a weak surface wave will continue moving eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone. Once it clears the far southeastern tip of Louisiana early in the period, the wave is forecast to remain over the northern Gulf through the day. Correspondingly, the surface warm sector is also forecast to remain offshore. As the wave approaches northwestern Florida, weakening is expected -- with redevelopment expected to focus off the southern Atlantic Coast beginning during the afternoon. The low is then expected to deepen gradually over the Gulf Stream, through the end of the period. With the warm sector to remain south of the central Gulf Coast States, and lapse rates/instability to remain weak, onshore convection is expected to remain elevated and largely disorganized. Even across northern Florida near the remnant baroclinic zone, weak lapse rates should preclude appreciable surface-based CAPE development, suggesting little if any risk for organized convection. The current/apparent lack of severe weather potential, precludes consideration of any inclusion of severe-weather probabilities at this time. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As a mid-level short-wave trough crossing the southern Plains at the start of the period moves quickly eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country Wednesday, a weak surface wave will continue moving eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone. Once it clears the far southeastern tip of Louisiana early in the period, the wave is forecast to remain over the northern Gulf through the day. Correspondingly, the surface warm sector is also forecast to remain offshore. As the wave approaches northwestern Florida, weakening is expected -- with redevelopment expected to focus off the southern Atlantic Coast beginning during the afternoon. The low is then expected to deepen gradually over the Gulf Stream, through the end of the period. With the warm sector to remain south of the central Gulf Coast States, and lapse rates/instability to remain weak, onshore convection is expected to remain elevated and largely disorganized. Even across northern Florida near the remnant baroclinic zone, weak lapse rates should preclude appreciable surface-based CAPE development, suggesting little if any risk for organized convection. The current/apparent lack of severe weather potential, precludes consideration of any inclusion of severe-weather probabilities at this time. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As a mid-level short-wave trough crossing the southern Plains at the start of the period moves quickly eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country Wednesday, a weak surface wave will continue moving eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone. Once it clears the far southeastern tip of Louisiana early in the period, the wave is forecast to remain over the northern Gulf through the day. Correspondingly, the surface warm sector is also forecast to remain offshore. As the wave approaches northwestern Florida, weakening is expected -- with redevelopment expected to focus off the southern Atlantic Coast beginning during the afternoon. The low is then expected to deepen gradually over the Gulf Stream, through the end of the period. With the warm sector to remain south of the central Gulf Coast States, and lapse rates/instability to remain weak, onshore convection is expected to remain elevated and largely disorganized. Even across northern Florida near the remnant baroclinic zone, weak lapse rates should preclude appreciable surface-based CAPE development, suggesting little if any risk for organized convection. The current/apparent lack of severe weather potential, precludes consideration of any inclusion of severe-weather probabilities at this time. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As a mid-level short-wave trough crossing the southern Plains at the start of the period moves quickly eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country Wednesday, a weak surface wave will continue moving eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone. Once it clears the far southeastern tip of Louisiana early in the period, the wave is forecast to remain over the northern Gulf through the day. Correspondingly, the surface warm sector is also forecast to remain offshore. As the wave approaches northwestern Florida, weakening is expected -- with redevelopment expected to focus off the southern Atlantic Coast beginning during the afternoon. The low is then expected to deepen gradually over the Gulf Stream, through the end of the period. With the warm sector to remain south of the central Gulf Coast States, and lapse rates/instability to remain weak, onshore convection is expected to remain elevated and largely disorganized. Even across northern Florida near the remnant baroclinic zone, weak lapse rates should preclude appreciable surface-based CAPE development, suggesting little if any risk for organized convection. The current/apparent lack of severe weather potential, precludes consideration of any inclusion of severe-weather probabilities at this time. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more