Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As a mid-level short-wave trough crossing the southern Plains at the start of the period moves quickly eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country Wednesday, a weak surface wave will continue moving eastward along the remnant baroclinic zone. Once it clears the far southeastern tip of Louisiana early in the period, the wave is forecast to remain over the northern Gulf through the day. Correspondingly, the surface warm sector is also forecast to remain offshore. As the wave approaches northwestern Florida, weakening is expected -- with redevelopment expected to focus off the southern Atlantic Coast beginning during the afternoon. The low is then expected to deepen gradually over the Gulf Stream, through the end of the period. With the warm sector to remain south of the central Gulf Coast States, and lapse rates/instability to remain weak, onshore convection is expected to remain elevated and largely disorganized. Even across northern Florida near the remnant baroclinic zone, weak lapse rates should preclude appreciable surface-based CAPE development, suggesting little if any risk for organized convection. The current/apparent lack of severe weather potential, precludes consideration of any inclusion of severe-weather probabilities at this time. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-/upper-level short-wave trough will continue digging southeastward across the Four Corners states during the day Tuesday, before arcing more eastward into the across the southern Plains overnight. As this system advances, weak/gradual surface wave development is expected along the primary baroclinic zone across Texas during the day. With time, as the wave shifts eastward to the Texas Coastal Plain by evening, a southward surge of Arctic air will occur in its wake. Overnight, this wave should continue eastward roughly along the western Gulf Coast, reaching the vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi by 12Z Wednesday. By this time, the trailing cold front will likely have reached the western Gulf, with cold air penetrating south of the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. ...Southeastern Texas eastward across southern Louisiana... A broad zone of low-level theta-e advection is expected across all but western portions of the southern Plains at the start of the period, shifting gradually eastward across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and reaching central Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast states overnight. As the relatively warm/moist air spreads northward atop a still-cool/stable boundary layer, elevated convection is forecast to gradually increase/expand across the eastern half of the southern Plains and into Arkansas/Louisiana through the day. By late afternoon/early evening, some convection will likely have deepened sufficiently to produce some lightning, with thunderstorm coverage then increasing and spreading eastward through the overnight hours in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned surface wave. With convection largely remaining elevated, severe potential will likely be relegated to marginal hail with a few of the strongest storms, largely evolving after sunset. Potential for near-surface-based storms will remain confined to southern portions of the MRGL risk area, where gusty winds may occur with one or two of the strongest storms. Any risk for a tornado will remain even more limited -- confined to coastal areas of southern Louisiana, and most likely after midnight. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-/upper-level short-wave trough will continue digging southeastward across the Four Corners states during the day Tuesday, before arcing more eastward into the across the southern Plains overnight. As this system advances, weak/gradual surface wave development is expected along the primary baroclinic zone across Texas during the day. With time, as the wave shifts eastward to the Texas Coastal Plain by evening, a southward surge of Arctic air will occur in its wake. Overnight, this wave should continue eastward roughly along the western Gulf Coast, reaching the vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi by 12Z Wednesday. By this time, the trailing cold front will likely have reached the western Gulf, with cold air penetrating south of the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. ...Southeastern Texas eastward across southern Louisiana... A broad zone of low-level theta-e advection is expected across all but western portions of the southern Plains at the start of the period, shifting gradually eastward across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and reaching central Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast states overnight. As the relatively warm/moist air spreads northward atop a still-cool/stable boundary layer, elevated convection is forecast to gradually increase/expand across the eastern half of the southern Plains and into Arkansas/Louisiana through the day. By late afternoon/early evening, some convection will likely have deepened sufficiently to produce some lightning, with thunderstorm coverage then increasing and spreading eastward through the overnight hours in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned surface wave. With convection largely remaining elevated, severe potential will likely be relegated to marginal hail with a few of the strongest storms, largely evolving after sunset. Potential for near-surface-based storms will remain confined to southern portions of the MRGL risk area, where gusty winds may occur with one or two of the strongest storms. Any risk for a tornado will remain even more limited -- confined to coastal areas of southern Louisiana, and most likely after midnight. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-/upper-level short-wave trough will continue digging southeastward across the Four Corners states during the day Tuesday, before arcing more eastward into the across the southern Plains overnight. As this system advances, weak/gradual surface wave development is expected along the primary baroclinic zone across Texas during the day. With time, as the wave shifts eastward to the Texas Coastal Plain by evening, a southward surge of Arctic air will occur in its wake. Overnight, this wave should continue eastward roughly along the western Gulf Coast, reaching the vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi by 12Z Wednesday. By this time, the trailing cold front will likely have reached the western Gulf, with cold air penetrating south of the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. ...Southeastern Texas eastward across southern Louisiana... A broad zone of low-level theta-e advection is expected across all but western portions of the southern Plains at the start of the period, shifting gradually eastward across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and reaching central Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast states overnight. As the relatively warm/moist air spreads northward atop a still-cool/stable boundary layer, elevated convection is forecast to gradually increase/expand across the eastern half of the southern Plains and into Arkansas/Louisiana through the day. By late afternoon/early evening, some convection will likely have deepened sufficiently to produce some lightning, with thunderstorm coverage then increasing and spreading eastward through the overnight hours in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned surface wave. With convection largely remaining elevated, severe potential will likely be relegated to marginal hail with a few of the strongest storms, largely evolving after sunset. Potential for near-surface-based storms will remain confined to southern portions of the MRGL risk area, where gusty winds may occur with one or two of the strongest storms. Any risk for a tornado will remain even more limited -- confined to coastal areas of southern Louisiana, and most likely after midnight. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-/upper-level short-wave trough will continue digging southeastward across the Four Corners states during the day Tuesday, before arcing more eastward into the across the southern Plains overnight. As this system advances, weak/gradual surface wave development is expected along the primary baroclinic zone across Texas during the day. With time, as the wave shifts eastward to the Texas Coastal Plain by evening, a southward surge of Arctic air will occur in its wake. Overnight, this wave should continue eastward roughly along the western Gulf Coast, reaching the vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi by 12Z Wednesday. By this time, the trailing cold front will likely have reached the western Gulf, with cold air penetrating south of the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. ...Southeastern Texas eastward across southern Louisiana... A broad zone of low-level theta-e advection is expected across all but western portions of the southern Plains at the start of the period, shifting gradually eastward across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and reaching central Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast states overnight. As the relatively warm/moist air spreads northward atop a still-cool/stable boundary layer, elevated convection is forecast to gradually increase/expand across the eastern half of the southern Plains and into Arkansas/Louisiana through the day. By late afternoon/early evening, some convection will likely have deepened sufficiently to produce some lightning, with thunderstorm coverage then increasing and spreading eastward through the overnight hours in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned surface wave. With convection largely remaining elevated, severe potential will likely be relegated to marginal hail with a few of the strongest storms, largely evolving after sunset. Potential for near-surface-based storms will remain confined to southern portions of the MRGL risk area, where gusty winds may occur with one or two of the strongest storms. Any risk for a tornado will remain even more limited -- confined to coastal areas of southern Louisiana, and most likely after midnight. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-/upper-level short-wave trough will continue digging southeastward across the Four Corners states during the day Tuesday, before arcing more eastward into the across the southern Plains overnight. As this system advances, weak/gradual surface wave development is expected along the primary baroclinic zone across Texas during the day. With time, as the wave shifts eastward to the Texas Coastal Plain by evening, a southward surge of Arctic air will occur in its wake. Overnight, this wave should continue eastward roughly along the western Gulf Coast, reaching the vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi by 12Z Wednesday. By this time, the trailing cold front will likely have reached the western Gulf, with cold air penetrating south of the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. ...Southeastern Texas eastward across southern Louisiana... A broad zone of low-level theta-e advection is expected across all but western portions of the southern Plains at the start of the period, shifting gradually eastward across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and reaching central Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast states overnight. As the relatively warm/moist air spreads northward atop a still-cool/stable boundary layer, elevated convection is forecast to gradually increase/expand across the eastern half of the southern Plains and into Arkansas/Louisiana through the day. By late afternoon/early evening, some convection will likely have deepened sufficiently to produce some lightning, with thunderstorm coverage then increasing and spreading eastward through the overnight hours in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned surface wave. With convection largely remaining elevated, severe potential will likely be relegated to marginal hail with a few of the strongest storms, largely evolving after sunset. Potential for near-surface-based storms will remain confined to southern portions of the MRGL risk area, where gusty winds may occur with one or two of the strongest storms. Any risk for a tornado will remain even more limited -- confined to coastal areas of southern Louisiana, and most likely after midnight. ..Goss.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A surface cold front is in the process of clearing far south FL and the Keys this morning. In its wake, expansive high pressure will dominate much of the central CONUS. Across the western states, a weak mid-level shortwave trough will advance from the Northwest towards the central Rockies through the period. With cool and/or dry conditions expected across a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential appears limited through tonight. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/17/2025 Read more