Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0109 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern New York...Northern New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 161328Z - 161930Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will likely develop across parts of northern New York and northern New England this morning. Further south into parts of east-central New York and central New England, a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this morning. DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough will quickly move through the southern and central Appalachians this morning. A surface low will deepen and move northeastward into the Northeast. Ahead of the system, a band of strong warm-advection was located from New York eastward into the southern New England, where widespread precipitation is ongoing. The freezing line is currently located from southern New York eastward into southern New England. A zone (about 100 miles wide) of freezing rain and sleet is located to the north of the freezing line. This freezing rain and sleet will spread northward over the next few hours. A changeover to rain will occur as the freezing line moves northward. In addition, areas that are experiencing snow may changeover to freezing rain. Freezing rain rates could exceed 0.05 inches per hour. Further north into northern New England, surface temperatures are in the teens and single digits. The cold air in the low to mid-levels will make snow the primary precipitation type. As strong warm advection and isentropic lift increase across the region, the development of heavy snow will likely occur in many areas. Snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43197054 42797083 42357095 42227144 42257364 42237611 42237809 42297855 42527872 42797875 43207863 43387841 43667772 43957661 44097625 44377600 44717549 44937500 44987440 44997194 45087130 45287091 45867027 46206992 46346945 46366911 46216857 46036820 45266735 44906732 44666748 44396787 44166854 43756959 43407029 43197054 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more