Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ECG TO 20 SSE ORF TO 10 N ORF. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ136-ANZ632-634-656-161840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 14 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 161440Z - 162000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 14 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 940 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving convective line will move east across the Watch area. Scattered damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard before the severe threat moves east of the coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 35 miles southwest of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 26050. ...Smith Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW JAX TO 40 E SSI. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC031-161740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL AMZ350-374-452-161740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW JAX TO 40 E SSI. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC031-161740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL AMZ350-374-452-161740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 13 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 161230Z - 161800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Florida Southeast/Coastal Georgia Southern/Coastal South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 730 AM until 100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to move east-southeastward to the Atlantic Coast this morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity, although a brief tornado may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Charleston SC to 40 miles west of Jacksonville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 11...WW 12... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM TO 20 WNW EWN TO 25 SW ECG TO ORF. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-053-055-095-129-133-137-139-141-177-187- 161740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE HYDE NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC199-650-700-710-735-740-810-161740- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH VIRGINIA BEACH Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more