Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 16 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 16 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern through north central Virginia and adjacent portions of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161755Z - 162030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany showers spreading east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, across the Mid Atlantic, this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Beneath the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling (generally in the 850-500 mb layer) spreading across and east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, insolation is contributing to modest steepening of lapse rates and destabilization sufficient for low-topped convective development. As this spreads east-northeastward toward the coastal plain through 3-5 PM EDT, it remains unclear whether this will deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. However, to the south of a large and still deepening cyclone, activity is embedded within strong southwesterly to westerly deep-layer mean wind fields, which still appears to include 50-60 kt in the lowest 3 km AGL. Although a relatively cool and moist near-surface environment may not be particularly efficient contributing to the downward mixing of momentum, heavier precipitation in the stronger convection may still support occasional potentially damaging gusts reaching the surface. ..Kerr/Smith.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 39307913 39667718 38727610 36117916 35598103 35918088 36978026 39307913 Read more