Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and an Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. A cold front will shift south over South FL, but poor lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will preclude sufficient destabilization for thunderstorms. Elsewhere, cold and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and an Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. A cold front will shift south over South FL, but poor lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will preclude sufficient destabilization for thunderstorms. Elsewhere, cold and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and an Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. A cold front will shift south over South FL, but poor lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will preclude sufficient destabilization for thunderstorms. Elsewhere, cold and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and an Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. A cold front will shift south over South FL, but poor lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will preclude sufficient destabilization for thunderstorms. Elsewhere, cold and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and an Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. A cold front will shift south over South FL, but poor lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will preclude sufficient destabilization for thunderstorms. Elsewhere, cold and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and an Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. A cold front will shift south over South FL, but poor lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will preclude sufficient destabilization for thunderstorms. Elsewhere, cold and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low is forecast to be near far southeast LA at the beginning of the forecast period, with a trailing Arctic cold front extending southwest into the western Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from southeast LA eastward along the central Gulf coast vicinity during the morning. Stronger convection will remain over the warmer Gulf waters as the cold front develops east/southeast through the day. Poor lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of the cold front will preclude much destabilization over land. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening, but severe thunderstorms are not expected given the expected poor thermodynamic environment. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low is forecast to be near far southeast LA at the beginning of the forecast period, with a trailing Arctic cold front extending southwest into the western Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from southeast LA eastward along the central Gulf coast vicinity during the morning. Stronger convection will remain over the warmer Gulf waters as the cold front develops east/southeast through the day. Poor lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of the cold front will preclude much destabilization over land. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening, but severe thunderstorms are not expected given the expected poor thermodynamic environment. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low is forecast to be near far southeast LA at the beginning of the forecast period, with a trailing Arctic cold front extending southwest into the western Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from southeast LA eastward along the central Gulf coast vicinity during the morning. Stronger convection will remain over the warmer Gulf waters as the cold front develops east/southeast through the day. Poor lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of the cold front will preclude much destabilization over land. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening, but severe thunderstorms are not expected given the expected poor thermodynamic environment. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low is forecast to be near far southeast LA at the beginning of the forecast period, with a trailing Arctic cold front extending southwest into the western Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from southeast LA eastward along the central Gulf coast vicinity during the morning. Stronger convection will remain over the warmer Gulf waters as the cold front develops east/southeast through the day. Poor lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of the cold front will preclude much destabilization over land. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening, but severe thunderstorms are not expected given the expected poor thermodynamic environment. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low is forecast to be near far southeast LA at the beginning of the forecast period, with a trailing Arctic cold front extending southwest into the western Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from southeast LA eastward along the central Gulf coast vicinity during the morning. Stronger convection will remain over the warmer Gulf waters as the cold front develops east/southeast through the day. Poor lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of the cold front will preclude much destabilization over land. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening, but severe thunderstorms are not expected given the expected poor thermodynamic environment. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low is forecast to be near far southeast LA at the beginning of the forecast period, with a trailing Arctic cold front extending southwest into the western Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from southeast LA eastward along the central Gulf coast vicinity during the morning. Stronger convection will remain over the warmer Gulf waters as the cold front develops east/southeast through the day. Poor lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of the cold front will preclude much destabilization over land. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening, but severe thunderstorms are not expected given the expected poor thermodynamic environment. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to displace the modified continental air mass inland. Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an attendant tornado/severe gust threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to displace the modified continental air mass inland. Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an attendant tornado/severe gust threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to displace the modified continental air mass inland. Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an attendant tornado/severe gust threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025 Read more