Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more