Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast, though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20 corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX. Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible. Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast, though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20 corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX. Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible. Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast, though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20 corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX. Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible. Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening from parts of central California eastward into the central High Plains. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery has a pronounced dry slot extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. A mid-level low is located over northern Utah with an associated trough extending southwestward into California. Mid-level moisture is evident across much of the western U.S. from the Four Corners northward into the northern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening near the low and the associated trough. Additional isolated storms could develop to the east of the low near a subtle shortwave trough moving into the central High Plains. Instability across the western U.S. is very weak which should keep any storm that develops below severe limits. ..Broyles.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening from parts of central California eastward into the central High Plains. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery has a pronounced dry slot extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. A mid-level low is located over northern Utah with an associated trough extending southwestward into California. Mid-level moisture is evident across much of the western U.S. from the Four Corners northward into the northern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening near the low and the associated trough. Additional isolated storms could develop to the east of the low near a subtle shortwave trough moving into the central High Plains. Instability across the western U.S. is very weak which should keep any storm that develops below severe limits. ..Broyles.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening from parts of central California eastward into the central High Plains. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery has a pronounced dry slot extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. A mid-level low is located over northern Utah with an associated trough extending southwestward into California. Mid-level moisture is evident across much of the western U.S. from the Four Corners northward into the northern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening near the low and the associated trough. Additional isolated storms could develop to the east of the low near a subtle shortwave trough moving into the central High Plains. Instability across the western U.S. is very weak which should keep any storm that develops below severe limits. ..Broyles.. 03/07/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 6 22:23:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 6 22:23:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more