Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

MD 0154 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northwest into north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 080749Z - 081015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms with large-hail potential are expected to develop overnight. DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection is ongoing early this morning across parts of central TX, with a recent increase in midlevel cloudiness and elevated convection also noted across northwest TX. This ongoing activity is likely related to ascent and midlevel moistening beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, in advance of a mid/upper-level low (and related shortwave trough) approaching the region from the southern Rockies. A further increase in elevated convection is expected overnight, primarily near/north of a southward-moving cold front, as relatively rich low-level moisture continues to stream northward near/north of the frontal zone, and ascent related to the shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the region. While ongoing weak convection may be rooted near/above 700 mb, continued low-level moistening beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates is expected to result in a few deeper/stronger elevated storms overnight, especially from parts of northwest into north TX. MUCAPE increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg and favorable effective shear could support at least transient elevated supercells, with some CAM guidance suggesting development of one or two longer-lived cells later this morning. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat with the stronger elevated storms, especially if any deeper and longer-lived cells can develop. Locally gusty winds could also accompany any sustained supercells, despite the elevated nature of the convection. Coverage and longevity of the organized severe threat remain uncertain, but watch issuance may be considered if observational trends support maintenance of multiple severe storms overnight. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 32080059 32720061 33000038 33309987 33539935 33599803 33289647 32889587 31499625 31199721 31059857 31009957 31069990 31280023 32080059 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more