Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast, though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20 corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX. Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible. Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast, though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20 corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX. Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible. Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more