Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more