Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more