Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ILM TO 35 ESE FAY TO 10 WSW RWI. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-065-073-079-083-091-095- 101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-191-195- 052040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC081-093-095-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700-710-735-740- 800-810-830-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ILM TO 35 ESE FAY TO 10 WSW RWI. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-065-073-079-083-091-095- 101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-191-195- 052040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC081-093-095-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700-710-735-740- 800-810-830-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW RZZ TO 15 SE RIC TO 15 SW NHK TO 15 NNE NHK TO 25 ENE BWI. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC019-039-045-047-052040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-036-073-097-103-115-119-127-131-133-159-052040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK CHARLES CITY GLOUCESTER KING AND QUEEN LANCASTER MATHEWS MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND RICHMOND ANZ539-540-541-543-630-631-635-636-650-652-654-052040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0150 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27... FOR FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...far western Virginia...southern Maryland Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27... Valid 051802Z - 051930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW27. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of far western Virginia into southern Maryland within WW27. Reports of winds up to 60 mph and damage to trees/power lines has been reported over the last hour from the northern portion of the line near Richmond. Ahead of this line, daytime heating has yielded temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Though thermal profiles remain meager, deep layer shear around 60-70 kts and strong mid-level flow will continue to support continued organization and risk for damaging winds as this line moves eastward. Occasional line embedded mesovorticies may support risk for a tornado. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 38497714 38527664 38507594 38347534 38077516 37717519 37347545 37307578 37257615 37197674 36857761 36897795 37087798 37297771 37647738 37997736 38497714 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms will remain low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move from the lower Colorado Valley into the southern Rockies on Friday. Ahead of this feature, a strong belt of mid-level flow will persist across the southern Plains into the Southeast. Low-amplitude upper ridging will precede the southwestern trough. At the surface, a low will track from Kansas into the Ohio Valley before weakening. A cold front will push into the southern Plains in its wake. As the trough approaches the southern Plains, a surface low will develop along the cold front in Central/South Texas. Some moisture return is expected to occur from the Upper Texas Coast into the central Gulf Coast. However, the persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain a capping layer of warmer air and should preclude thunderstorm development in the absence of greater forcing for ascent. Within the core of the upper trough, some weak convection appears possible in south-central/southeast Arizona given the cold temperatures aloft. However, the cool/dry boundary layer conditions suggest coverage should remain well below 10%. ..Wendt.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms will remain low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move from the lower Colorado Valley into the southern Rockies on Friday. Ahead of this feature, a strong belt of mid-level flow will persist across the southern Plains into the Southeast. Low-amplitude upper ridging will precede the southwestern trough. At the surface, a low will track from Kansas into the Ohio Valley before weakening. A cold front will push into the southern Plains in its wake. As the trough approaches the southern Plains, a surface low will develop along the cold front in Central/South Texas. Some moisture return is expected to occur from the Upper Texas Coast into the central Gulf Coast. However, the persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain a capping layer of warmer air and should preclude thunderstorm development in the absence of greater forcing for ascent. Within the core of the upper trough, some weak convection appears possible in south-central/southeast Arizona given the cold temperatures aloft. However, the cool/dry boundary layer conditions suggest coverage should remain well below 10%. ..Wendt.. 03/05/2025 Read more