Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more