Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday morning. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment, low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama during the afternoon. The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain. Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves, convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday morning. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment, low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama during the afternoon. The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain. Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves, convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more