Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more