Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more

MD 0083 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...Far Northwest Arkansas...Far Southwest Missouri...Far Southeast Kansas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 120725Z - 121330Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to develop across parts of Oklahoma overnight, with precipitation rates locally exceeding 0.10 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery near the Four Corners. This feature will move quickly eastward across the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains late tonight into the early morning hours. Large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave will increase across the southern Plains, which will aid the expansion and intensification of precipitation that is already ongoing. At the surface, cold air advection is occurring over much of the southern Plains. Surface temperatures are currently below freezing in most of western and northern Oklahoma into parts of central Oklahoma. Temperatures will continue to slowly drop over the next few hours, as an area with heavier precipitation moves east-northeastward across Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings along this corridor late tonight have a warm layer of +2 to +4 C between 700 and 800 mb. With sub-freezing surface temperatures, this will result in freezing rain over much of Oklahoma. Freezing rain rates are expected to locally exceed 0.10 inches per hour within the heavier convective showers. Short-term model forecast suggest that the precipitation will eventually move into parts of the western Ozarks near or after daybreak, where precipitation may change over to moderate snow, with the development of heavy snow possible. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35039600 34529795 34419886 34419939 34489971 34729995 35120007 35619997 36049962 36449896 36899706 37319469 37319385 37149347 36759323 36279333 35949376 35659437 35039600 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. ...Day 5/Sunday... The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place. The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern Carolinas will continue to be monitored. ...Day 6/Monday Onward... With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide, severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period. Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. ...Day 5/Sunday... The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place. The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern Carolinas will continue to be monitored. ...Day 6/Monday Onward... With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide, severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period. Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. ...Day 5/Sunday... The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place. The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern Carolinas will continue to be monitored. ...Day 6/Monday Onward... With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide, severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period. Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. ...Day 5/Sunday... The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place. The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern Carolinas will continue to be monitored. ...Day 6/Monday Onward... With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide, severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period. Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. ...Day 5/Sunday... The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place. The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern Carolinas will continue to be monitored. ...Day 6/Monday Onward... With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide, severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period. Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. ...Day 5/Sunday... The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place. The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern Carolinas will continue to be monitored. ...Day 6/Monday Onward... With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide, severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period. Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Texas Coastal Plain...Western and Central Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120808Z - 120915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat, with strong wind gusts and hail, is expected to develop late tonight into early this morning across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain into parts of western and central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains late tonight. In response, moisture advection will continue across the Texas Coastal Plain. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near Laredo northeastward to northwest of Victoria to near College Station. The stronger convection is located to the west of this boundary. The RAP has MUCAPE varying from around 500 J/kg in southeast Texas to near 1500 J/kg in south Texas. As low-level moisture advection continues overnight, instability will gradually increase. Most RAP forecast soundings to the west of the front have a low-level temperature inversion, with effective shear above the inversion in the 50 to 60 knot range. This could support a marginal severe threat with the stronger elevated cores, with hail possible. As convective coverage increases, surface-based storms may develop near the front. The stronger cells could have marginally severe gusts, in addition to hail. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29239601 28519726 28309777 28319806 28439815 28759808 29459760 30319671 31089569 31789456 32109386 32199334 32219289 32139262 31899240 31509247 31109280 30819317 30539368 29989481 29239601 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more