Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

WW 97 TORNADO AR IL MO 021345Z - 022100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 97 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Arkansas Southern Illinois Southern and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 845 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken clusters of storms and some embedded/semi-discrete supercells will spread east-northeastward across the region through early/mid-afternoon, with an increasing tornado risk aside from widespread damaging winds and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Alton IL to 30 miles west southwest of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94...WW 95...WW 96... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more