Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will traverse the Southwest on Friday with persistent lee surface troughing in the southern/central High Plains. This will result in a broad region of strengthening southerly flow across the southern Plains and into the Lower-Mid Mississippi Valley. Initially, moisture return will be above the surface with weak to moderate elevated instability expected Friday night across Arkansas and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the low-level jet and isentropic ascent strengthens, elevated thunderstorms are expected, particularly after 06Z. Isolated hail is possible, but forecast instability currently appears too weak for a more widespread large hail threat. Surface based convection is not anticipated as 60F dewpoints are only expected as far north as the AR/LA border by 12Z Saturday with minimal convection expected within the warm sector. Therefore, minimal severe weather threat is expected prior to 12Z Saturday and no Marginal Risk appears warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will traverse the Southwest on Friday with persistent lee surface troughing in the southern/central High Plains. This will result in a broad region of strengthening southerly flow across the southern Plains and into the Lower-Mid Mississippi Valley. Initially, moisture return will be above the surface with weak to moderate elevated instability expected Friday night across Arkansas and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the low-level jet and isentropic ascent strengthens, elevated thunderstorms are expected, particularly after 06Z. Isolated hail is possible, but forecast instability currently appears too weak for a more widespread large hail threat. Surface based convection is not anticipated as 60F dewpoints are only expected as far north as the AR/LA border by 12Z Saturday with minimal convection expected within the warm sector. Therefore, minimal severe weather threat is expected prior to 12Z Saturday and no Marginal Risk appears warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BPT TO 30 SW POE TO 25 W ESF TO 25 NNW ESF TO 25 SSW MLU TO 15 E MLU. ..JEWELL..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-021-043-059-079-115-052340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE RAPIDES VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 12 17:56:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0085 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Southern and Central Missouri...South-central Illinois Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 121216Z - 121815Z SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will be likely this morning across parts of southwest Missouri east-northeastward into south-central Illinois. Precipitation rates could exceed 0.05 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough is currently analyzed across the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, an area of precipitation is ongoing within a zone of increasing large-scale ascent from the eastern portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Surface temperatures are in the lower 30s F across most of Southwest Missouri extending northeastward to the vicinity of St Louis. Several RAP forecast soundings within this corridor have a warm nose in the mid-levels between 700 and 800 mb, with temperatures near 0 C. This warm layer will result in a mix of precipitation types. Freezing rain, sleet and snow will be possible as this area of precipitation spreads northeastward. Precipitation across southeastern Missouri, where the warm nose is more pronounced, will be mostly freezing rain, while further to the north across north-central Missouri, snow is expected to predominant. Locally, heavy snowfall rates will be possible with the more intense bands. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37439445 37949410 38379308 39059130 39499012 39608925 39428885 39218868 38998854 38628858 38198887 37828955 37519019 37129131 36499328 36529407 37059451 37439445 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated surface low will amplify/deepen across the northeast Thursday morning with a trailing cold front extending southward along the Appalachians and into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This front will move off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening with high pressure building in across much of the eastern CONUS in its wake. Meanwhile, a strong surface low will approach the northern California/southwest Oregon Coast during the day Thursday. ...Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from central Georgia and perhaps into South Carolina and southern North Carolina to the Florida Peninsula. By 12Z the greatest severe weather threat will likely be focused across southern Georgia where mid-60s dewpoints are forecast. A strong (50 knot) low-level jet is forecast to be in place at 12Z, but will weaken through the morning as the primary surface low quickly moves farther away to the northeast. During this period in the morning with a strong low-level jet and ample instability, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain. This front is expected to move offshore by mid afternoon and thunderstorm intensity will likely have likely waned by this time due to the weakening forcing. ...Northern California... A strong surface low of the northern California coast will result in favorable shear across much of central and northern California tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of this region with weak instability present. If any pockets of greater (250-500 J/kg) MLCAPE can develop during the day Thursday when shear remains strong, a damaging wind gust or tornado is possible. However, at this time forecast soundings show the greater instability arriving beneath the upper-level low when shear will also be reduced. Therefore, given the lack of overlap between greater instability and shear, no Marginal Risk was added at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated surface low will amplify/deepen across the northeast Thursday morning with a trailing cold front extending southward along the Appalachians and into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This front will move off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening with high pressure building in across much of the eastern CONUS in its wake. Meanwhile, a strong surface low will approach the northern California/southwest Oregon Coast during the day Thursday. ...Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from central Georgia and perhaps into South Carolina and southern North Carolina to the Florida Peninsula. By 12Z the greatest severe weather threat will likely be focused across southern Georgia where mid-60s dewpoints are forecast. A strong (50 knot) low-level jet is forecast to be in place at 12Z, but will weaken through the morning as the primary surface low quickly moves farther away to the northeast. During this period in the morning with a strong low-level jet and ample instability, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain. This front is expected to move offshore by mid afternoon and thunderstorm intensity will likely have likely waned by this time due to the weakening forcing. ...Northern California... A strong surface low of the northern California coast will result in favorable shear across much of central and northern California tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of this region with weak instability present. If any pockets of greater (250-500 J/kg) MLCAPE can develop during the day Thursday when shear remains strong, a damaging wind gust or tornado is possible. However, at this time forecast soundings show the greater instability arriving beneath the upper-level low when shear will also be reduced. Therefore, given the lack of overlap between greater instability and shear, no Marginal Risk was added at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more