Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more