Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more