Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is approaching this region, westerly LLJ currently extends across northern AL/GA. This stronger flow should translate into the frontal zone later this evening which could aid convective development, and possibly a few thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is approaching this region, westerly LLJ currently extends across northern AL/GA. This stronger flow should translate into the frontal zone later this evening which could aid convective development, and possibly a few thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2025 Read more