Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more