Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW VDI TO 20 NW VDI TO 10 S AGS TO 30 W CAE TO 20 ESE SPA TO 10 WSW HKY. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC033-107-209-245-271-279-283-309-312140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURKE EMANUEL MONTGOMERY RICHMOND TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER NCC025-045-071-109-119-179-312140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABARRUS CLEVELAND GASTON LINCOLN MECKLENBURG UNION SCC003-011-021-023-039-057-063-071-079-087-091-312140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AIKEN BARNWELL CHEROKEE Read more

MD 0327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88... FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Southern Georgia into North Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88... Valid 311754Z - 312000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely continue into more of southern Georgia and North Florida. An additional severe thunderstorm watch for parts of these areas is probable this afternoon. DISCUSSION...With surface temperatures ahead of the ongoing convective line reaching the low 80s F, MLCAPE has risen to around 2000 J/kg. As the line progresses east, the expectation is for continued damaging gust potential into southeast Georgia and North Florida. There will be some waning influence of the upper-level trough and shear will remain greater to the north/west. This makes the intensity of the line somewhat uncertain with eastward extent. A severe thunderstorm watch will most likely be considered for portions of southeast Georgia and North Florida. Regarding a QLCS tornado threat, KEOX data suggest that there were two brief TDS in far southeastern Alabama. Regional VAD data continue to show limited low-level hodograph curvature. Trends in the convective line and the environment continue to suggest the possibility of the QLCS tornado, though any circulation should be brief. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30228592 31408544 31858514 31858451 31718208 31578148 31128153 30228149 29808233 30228592 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more