Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more