Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 8 17:21:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more