Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

MD 0324 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...84... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...central/southern MS into southeast LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...84... Valid 311116Z - 311245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83, 84 continues. SUMMARY...A line of convection will continue shifting east/southeast across central/southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana this morning, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A robust line of convection, with embedded bowing elements, will continue to shift east/southeast across the MCD area this morning. A recent gust of at least 65 mph was noted at KJAN with the northern bowing segment. A couple of intense bowing segments have occasionally been noted across parts of south-central LA. This activity is expected to continue producing severe/damaging gusts with eastward extent through the morning given favorable downstream instability and an increasing 850 mb southwesterly low-level jet. Regional VWP data do indicated some modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. However, 0-1 km shear is fairly weak, around 15-25 kt amid poor low-level lapse rates. This should temper the tornado risk, though a brief spin-up could occur given the very moist boundary layer and at least modest low-level instability. ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 32658950 32408861 31588825 30948834 30178872 29688957 29599086 29659207 29739249 29929270 30119277 30309262 30839183 31689072 32658950 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CBM TO 40 WNW BHM TO 5 WSW HSV TO 50 W CHA. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-011-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-047-049-051- 055-063-065-071-073-081-085-087-089-091-095-101-103-105-107-111- 113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-311340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LEE LOWNDES MACON MADISON MARENGO MARSHALL MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER GAC047-055-083-295-311340- GA Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CBM TO 40 WNW BHM TO 5 WSW HSV TO 50 W CHA. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-011-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-047-049-051- 055-063-065-071-073-081-085-087-089-091-095-101-103-105-107-111- 113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-311340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LEE LOWNDES MACON MADISON MARENGO MARSHALL MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER GAC047-055-083-295-311340- GA Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-311340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-311340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA MSC039-041-111-131-153-311340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE PERRY STONE WAYNE Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-311340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-311340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA MSC039-041-111-131-153-311340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE PERRY STONE WAYNE Read more