Severe Storms

MD 0325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0834 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311334Z - 311530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds will continue into Georgia and the central/eastern Florida Panhandle. A less certain and conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this morning. DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating is ongoing in parts of central/southwestern Georgia where cloud cover has been more broken. These areas have seen temperatures rise into the low 70s F this morning. At least muted surface heating can be expected into the afternoon. Observed 12Z soundings from Birmingham/Atlanta show steep mid-level lapse rates, but also subsidence in the wake of a weaker lead shortwave/MCV. With an upstream shortwave trough now entering the Ozarks/Mid-South, additional mid-level ascent should promote more favorable thermodynamic profiles with time. Current VAD data from the region also shows relatively weak low-level flow. Again, as the trough moves into the Southeast, an increase in 850 mb winds is expected to occur. Overall, the primary severe threat should remain damaging winds. The tornado threat is less certain as, even with an increase in low-level winds, forecast hodographs still are rather marginal. Nonetheless, a few QLCS tornadoes or perhaps even a warm-advection-driven supercell tornado ahead of the line are still possible. A watch will likely be needed this morning as activity currently in Alabama and southern Mississippi continues east. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 31048593 33328503 34118497 34588476 34698430 34488371 33598281 31908309 30498418 29818459 29518518 29718592 30418632 31048593 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SEM TO 20 ESE TCL TO 15 ENE BHM TO 30 N GAD TO 10 NW CHA. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-047-049-051-055- 081-085-087-101-105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-311540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA GAC015-045-047-055-057-083-111-115-123-129-143-213-223-227-233- 295-313-311540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 84 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 310845Z - 311600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 84 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 345 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to consolidate into a line as they move east-southeastward this morning. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat, with peak gusts potentially up to 60-70 mph. Isolated large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter and a tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Houma LA to 20 miles south southeast of Slidell LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 80...WW 81...WW 82...WW 83... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more