Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more