Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 8 17:21:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more