Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0084 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0084 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW LFK TO 40 N IER TO 30 WNW MLU TO 25 SW LLQ. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-310940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-011-013-021-025-029-031-035-039-041-043-049-059-061- 065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-097-107-111-115-123-127- 310940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS UNION VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE CSV TO 25 WNW TYS TO 40 SE LOZ. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC001-007-009-011-025-057-065-067-093-105-107-115-121-123-139- 143-145-153-173-310940- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CLAIBORNE GRAINGER HAMILTON HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK RHEA ROANE SEQUATCHIE UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PBF TO 15 E UOX TO 45 SSE MKL. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-135-139-141-145-161- 310940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PBF TO 15 E UOX TO 45 SSE MKL. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-135-139-141-145-161- 310940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PBF TO 15 E UOX TO 45 SSE MKL. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-135-139-141-145-161- 310940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA Read more