Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more