Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will be present east of the Divide. A surface high within the Plains will shift southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will push a cold front to near the Gulf Coast. With generally stable conditions expected, thunderstorm potential appears to be minimal. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

MD 0074 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Areas affected...southern ND vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 072314Z - 080315Z SUMMARY...Narrow, transient bands of heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour should persist through the mid-evening hours across the southern North Dakota vicinity, potentially impacting areas along and south of the I-94 corridor. DISCUSSION...Per recent reports from WFO BIS/FGF and observational imagery, a thin band of heavy snow has been ongoing across a portion of southern ND, which the bulk of daytime guidance was underdone with. This snow band appears to be associated with an arc of maximized low-level isentropic ascent amid a rather cold thermodynamic profile supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios. Forcing for ascent above the dendritic growth zone will overspread some of this same corridor into mid evening as a mid-level shortwave impulse over southeast MT shifts east. This should maintain favorable large-scale lift and may aid in producing additional narrow bands towards the SD border area. This scenario is supported by a relative increase in heavy snow potential from 12Z HREF and 15Z SREF winter guidance. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46480233 46740075 46799757 46439645 46109649 45809715 45720016 45520178 45590262 46480233 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 7 23:17:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0074 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Areas affected...southern ND vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 072314Z - 080315Z SUMMARY...Narrow, transient bands of heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour should persist through the mid-evening hours across the southern North Dakota vicinity, potentially impacting areas along and south of the I-94 corridor. DISCUSSION...Per recent reports from WFO BIS/FGF and observational imagery, a thin band of heavy snow has been ongoing across a portion of southern ND, which the bulk of daytime guidance was underdone with. This snow band appears to be associated with an arc of maximized low-level isentropic ascent amid a rather cold thermodynamic profile supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios. Forcing for ascent above the dendritic growth zone will overspread some of this same corridor into mid evening as a mid-level shortwave impulse over southeast MT shifts east. This should maintain favorable large-scale lift and may aid in producing additional narrow bands towards the SD border area. This scenario is supported by a relative increase in heavy snow potential from 12Z HREF and 15Z SREF winter guidance. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46480233 46740075 46799757 46439645 46109649 45809715 45720016 45520178 45590262 46480233 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 7 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more