Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more